From hungary-online-owner Wed Mar 22 07:03:58 1995 Return-Path: owner-Hungary-Online-announce Received: from localhost (daemon@localhost) (fnord) by nando.yak.net (8.6.5/8.6.5) id HAA10427 for hungary-online-announce-out31415; Wed, 22 Mar 1995 07:03:58 -0800 Received: from localhost (daemon@localhost) (fnord) by nando.yak.net (8.6.5/8.6.5) id HAA10418; Wed, 22 Mar 1995 07:03:47 -0800 Received: from carlson@odin.net () via =-=-=-=-=-= for hol-announce@hungary.yak.net (10416) Received: from odin.net (omega.odin.net [193.130.116.3]) (fnord) by nando (8.6.5/8.6.5) with ESMTP id HAA10379 for ; Wed, 22 Mar 1995 07:02:16 -0800 Received: from [193.130.116.13] by odin.net with SMTP (8.6.10/1.2-btv) id QAA08120; Wed, 22 Mar 1995 16:09:54 GMT X-Sender: carlson@odin.net (Unverified) Message-Id: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Date: Wed, 22 Mar 1995 15:56:38 +0100 To: hol-announce@hungary.yak.net From: carlson@odin.net (Steven Carlson) Subject: (HOL-A) Internet: you aint seen nothin yet Sender: owner-Hungary-Online-announce@hungary.yak.net Precedence: bulk Reply-To: Hungary-Online@hungary.yak.net hungary-online Internet: you aint seen nothin yet By Steven Carlson These days you can hardly turn on the TV or lift a newspaper without being smacked in the face by the information revolution. Not long ago it was bad to be called a "nerd" or a "geek." Suddenly it's hip. Now politicians have email addresses and rock stars produce CD-ROMs and write Web pages. Every new startup company is called "cyber-this," "compu-that," or maybe "something-net." It seems everyone's jumping on the Internet bandwagon. Yet it's happening so fast we can't keep up. Hell - we haven't even got the jargon down. Ever had someone ask you for your email number? (address). I've also has some interesting discussions about Internet billboards (bulletin boards). Are you online yet? The hype has to have a limit. Every media sensation inevitably has a backlash, and you can already see the first signs of this one. I was surprised recently to see an old acquaintance named Cliff Stoll has come out with a book called _Silicon_Snakeoil:_Second_Thoughts_About_the_Information_Superhighway_. In his book, Stoll makes a good argument that the Internet is not the panacea we all hope it is. Getting on the Net is still hard for the non-tech user. The Net is difficult to navigate - it needs better searching engines and a Dewey decimal system to organize the chaos. Finally, with so many folks scrambling to get online, Stoll points out, Internet performance is suffering. The Net is slowing down. I agree with Stoll's points. But I also see Internet developing at such a pace that these problems will be overcome. The pace of technical development going on at present is matched only by the frenzied dealmaking among telecoms, cable companies, content providers and wildcard startups. There's more going on here than just slick PR. Here's just two reasons why the info boom is bigger than the hype: The bandwidth explosion When you talk about PCs, you measure performance in terms of chip speeds. When you talk about telecommunications the yardstick is bandwidth - the amount of data you can move across a network in a given time. Bandwidth is required to speed up the Net. Bandwidth, and lots of it, is required to move full-motion video feeds that will make possible real-time videoconferencing, video on demand, and who knows what else. All across the Internet, the cry is out for more bandwidth. And it is bandwidth we shall have. New switching technologies are coming online soon that will dramatically increase the data carrying capacity of fiber optic lines. Telecom pundits are saying the bandwidth explosion will parallel the exponential leaps in chip speeds that have come to characterize the computer industry. This year MCI is offering its corporate clients a 10 GB/sec connection. That's 10 billion bits per second - 10 times faster than the backplate of a Pentium computer. Numbers like that mean prices will be dropping and performance increasing on the consumer end. The pace of innovation These days the pundits speak glibly of a second Renaissance. Actually, I don't think that's so outlandish. After all, the first Renaissance was all about the flow of goods and ideas that sprang forth from the Crusaders' campaigns in the Palantine. What else is the Internet, but a fantastic meeting of minds? If you don't buy that, you'll at least agree the pace of innovation is accelerating. Here's one tidbit from this month's news that just could blow the lid off of long distance prices. It's called the Internet phone: VocalTec Inc. of Northvale, N.J. is now selling a product that allows PC users to "telephone" each other over the Internet. Called Internet phone, the software costs $50 and is available over the Internet. Motorola, which has a 42% share of the high end modem market, has just signed a deal with VocalTec to bundle the software with its product. For modems, says a Motorola spokesman, "The next wave of features is to add voice functionality." Excuse me? And what do you think the phone companies will say to this? Telecom officials interviewed by AP scoffed at the idea that they would lose business. But I suspect they'll soon change their minds. Internet access is much cheaper than long distance telephony (even in Hungary) and as the Net grows the idea is sure to catch on. The Hungarian PTT is currently trying to crack down on callback services which offer cheaper long distance service. A similar effort in the Czech republic failed. Revolutionary? This kind of news is getting old hat. Just as I was preparing to send away this column I noticed another item in the news. AT&T has just announced a technology called VideoSpan_Plus that will allow the phone companies to send cable TV over a copper telephone line. Add to that another piece of the puzzle from yesterday's news: Federal District Court Judge Harold H. Greene, who oversees the seven Bell regional operating companies, has ruled that Bell Atlantic can compete directly with cable operators and TV broadcasters in transmitting video programming anywhere in the country. That pretty much opens the US cable market to competition from the Baby Bells. What next? There's so much going on it hurts my head trying to follow it all. Sure, there's plenty of hype and hot air about cyberspace these days. But the information revolution will prove itself more than just a fad. If anything, this is only the beginning. You ain't seen nothin' yet. --- Steven Carlson Moderator/Publisher - hungary-online Critical Mass Media Inc. Internet trainer, consultant [+361] 133-4647 in Budapest, Hungary carlson@odin.net ############# # This message to Hungary-Online-announce@hungary.yak.net # was from carlson@odin.net (Steven Carlson) # # To unsubscribe, # send "unsubscribe" to # For a full subscription (rather than this announcement-only subscription) # mail "subscribe" to # Send mail to for more information, # or to if you need human assistance. #############