From hungary-online-owner Wed Jan 10 00:13:24 1996 Received: from localhost (daemon@localhost) (fnord) by nando.yak.net (8.6.5/8.6.5) id AAA04808 for hungary-online-announce-out31415; Wed, 10 Jan 1996 00:13:24 -0800 Received: from localhost (daemon@localhost) (fnord) by nando.yak.net (8.6.5/8.6.5) id AAA04796; Wed, 10 Jan 1996 00:13:12 -0800 Received: from steve@isys.hu () via =-=-=-=-=-= for hungary-online-announce@hungary.yak.net (4794) Received: from scooter.isys.hu (Scooter.iSYS.hu [194.24.160.131]) (fnord) by nando (8.6.5/8.6.5) with ESMTP id AAA04787 for ; Wed, 10 Jan 1996 00:12:57 -0800 Received: from [199.171.191.9] (ana0018.deltanet.com [199.171.191.18]) by scooter.isys.hu (8.6.12/8.6.12) with SMTP id JAA25614 for ; Wed, 10 Jan 1996 09:17:09 +0100 X-Sender: steve@194.24.160.4 Message-Id: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Date: Wed, 10 Jan 1996 09:07:17 +0100 To: hungary-online-announce@hungary.yak.net From: steve@isys.hu (Steven Carlson) Subject: (HOL-A) Looking back on the Year of the Internet Sender: owner-Hungary-Online-announce@hungary.yak.net Precedence: bulk Reply-To: Hungary-Online@hungary.yak.net Looking back on the Year of the Internet Hungary Online By Steven Carlson This week my editors have asked me to sum up the net in 1995. Now that's a challenge! I don't know if I can do this in 900 words, but I'll give it a go. Hang on tight ... The Birth of an Industry One sign the Internet has come of age is this year's mania over Internet stock offerings. Several leading Internet providers and software developers went public in 1995, in a series of highly publicized IPOs. The most dramatic was Netscape, the company that produces the leading World Wide Web browser. Netscape's original offering was to be 3.5 million shares at around $14 per share. Demand was so high the company doubled the price to $28, and expanded the offering to 5 million shares. When Netscape went public, in August, the stock rocketed to $75 per share before settling in the mid-50s. The multiples in this industry are absurd. Keep in mind Netscape had yet to show a profit. You could argue that in the information age, a company's value is in ideas. You could also argue that Wall Street is blinded by a blizzard of hype. Both statements are partially true. Nevertheless the financial world is taking the Internet very seriously. Fueling the boom is the increasing number of people using the net. How many people? Nobody knows. Every month a new Internet survey is announced, and the results vary wildly. The numbers are from 20-40 million, depending on how you define the survey. It's more relevant to look at growth rates. According to a study conducted by Network Wizards the number of computers connected to the Internet doubled from July 1994 to July '95, to nearly 6.5 million. Another interesting figure is that the amount of information available over WWW is doubling every four months. It's clear the web is where the action is. Software developers are in a constant search for the next "Killer App," a magic piece of code that leaps from their talented fingertips into the popular imagination and onto your desktop. The software primarily responsible for launching the Internet boom was arguably Mosaic. The idea was simple: to create a graphic interface for the World Wide Web. The first versions of Mosaic were slow and buggy, but you could download it for free and it worked. Internet traffic soared. Mosaic author Marc Andreesen left his university and, with ex-Silicon Graphics CEO Jim Clark, founded Netscape. Netscape now is positioning itself to be the ultimate Internet platform, the all-in-one tool. And still the code warriors are banging away at their keyboards. I see several emerging technologies that could bring the masses online like never before. Consider Internet phone. If your PC has a sound card and a microphone, you can talk to someone else over the Internet for the cost of a local call, plus what you pay your Internet provider. Several companies are now creating services to let you reach regular telephone subscribers via Internet. What about web television? CNN and others are now conducting experimental "broadcasts" of their programming over the Internet. You can also listen to radio. National Public Radio and the BBC already offer the daily programs over Internet. A technology by Sun Microsystems, called Java, will make possible animated web sites. And then there's Microsoft. The Sleeping Giant Awakens Ironically, as recently as Aug. 24 Bill Gates had the world eating out his hand. Those were the heady days of Windows 95. But that's old news; now everyone wants to know what Bill is doing about the net. Noted technology analyst and long-time Microsoft backer Rick Sherlund downgraded Microsoft's stock in November due to a perceived lack of Internet strategy. The other shoe hit the floor at a press conference held Dec. 7. "Internet is the primary driver of the new work that we're doing across the entire product line," Gates announced. One of the more intriguing products announced in Gates' speech was a free Internet add-on kit to Windows, to be released sometime in 1996, that will plug some of the new technologies I've talked about directly into the operating system. This includes - if I'm reading Bill correctly - Internet phone. You can read Bill's speech on the net at . Microsoft and Netscape seem destined to do battle. Because Netscape gives away its basic browser (selling a commercial version as well as server software), well over 70% of Internet users use Netscape. That gives Andreesen's crew the muscle to set standards and lead development. Meanwhile Microsoft is leveraging its massive Windows user base to capture the lead. One sign of things to come is that you can't read Bill Gate's speech if you don't use his browser. Here's a link for Netscape (and other) users: . Competition could spur innovation and benefit us all. But a browser war between Netscape and Microsoft could end up like the VHS/Betamax war in the VCR market. Let's hope the two gentlemen settle their differences soon. Well, that's my word limit. What about some predictions? In 1996, expect advertising to mushroom on the Internet as demographics become more sophisticated. Expect more consternation from U.S. lawmakers trying to grapple with issues like copyright and obscenity. Expect savvy politicians to campaign online. Expect your (U.S.) bank to offer online services. Expect 50,000 new users in Hungary. Expect all of these predictions to be underestimates. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Copyright (c) 1995. Permission granted to redistribute this article in electronic form for non-profit purposes only. My byline and this message must remain intact. Contact me for reprint rights. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------- Steven Carlson http://www.isys.hu iSYS Hungary info@isys.hu steve@isys.hu Hungary Online "The only way to get rid of a temptation is to yield to it." Oscar Wilde (1854-1900) ############# # This message to Hungary-Online-announce@hungary.yak.net # was from steve@isys.hu (Steven Carlson) # # To unsubscribe, # send "unsubscribe" to # For a full subscription (rather than this announcement-only subscription) # mail "subscribe" to # Send mail to for more information, # or to if you need human assistance. #############